Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China.
Science
; 368(6492): 742-746, 2020 05 15.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-46625
ABSTRACT
The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China was characterized by a distinctive subexponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting with an initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak. We show that this effect can be explained as a direct consequence of containment policies that effectively deplete the susceptible population. To this end, we introduce a parsimonious model that captures both quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals, as well as population-wide isolation practices in response to containment policies or behavioral changes, and show that the model captures the observed growth behavior accurately. The insights provided here may aid the careful implementation of containment strategies for ongoing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent infectious diseases.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Disease Outbreaks
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
/
Betacoronavirus
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Science
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Science.abb4557
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