Estimate of the Basic Reproduction Number for COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.
J Prev Med Public Health
; 53(3): 151-157, 2020 May.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-532856
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES:
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is one of the main public health challenges currently facing the world. Because of its high transmissibility, COVID-19 has already caused extensive morbidity and mortality in many countries throughout the world. An accurate estimation of the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 would be beneficial for prevention programs. In light of discrepancies in original research on this issue, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the pooled R0 for COVID-19 in the current outbreak.METHODS:
International databases (including Google Scholar, Science Direct, PubMed, and Scopus) were searched to identify studies conducted regarding the R0 of COVID-19. Articles were searched using the following keywords "COVID-19" and "basic reproduction number" or "R0." The heterogeneity among studies was assessed using the I2 index, the Cochran Q test, and T2. A random-effects model was used to estimate R0 in this study.RESULTS:
The mean reported R0 in the identified articles was 3.38±1.40, with a range of 1.90 to 6.49. According to the results of the random-effects model, the pooled R0 for COVID-19 was estimated as 3.32 (95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.82). According to the results of the meta-regression analysis, the type of model used to estimate R0 did not have a significant effect on heterogeneity among studies (p=0.81).CONCLUSIONS:
Considering the estimated R0 for COVID-19, reducing the number of contacts within the population is a necessary step to control the epidemic. The estimated overall R0 was higher than the World Health Organization estimate.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Basic Reproduction Number
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Randomized controlled trials
/
Reviews
/
Systematic review/Meta Analysis
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
J Prev Med Public Health
Journal subject:
Public Health
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Jpmph.20.076
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