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Global supply-chain effects of COVID-19 control measures.
Guan, Dabo; Wang, Daoping; Hallegatte, Stephane; Davis, Steven J; Huo, Jingwen; Li, Shuping; Bai, Yangchun; Lei, Tianyang; Xue, Qianyu; Coffman, D'Maris; Cheng, Danyang; Chen, Peipei; Liang, Xi; Xu, Bing; Lu, Xiaosheng; Wang, Shouyang; Hubacek, Klaus; Gong, Peng.
  • Guan D; Department of Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. guandabo@tsinghua.edu.cn.
  • Wang D; The Bartlett School of Construction and Project Management, University College London, London, UK. guandabo@tsinghua.edu.cn.
  • Hallegatte S; School of Urban and Regional Science, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, China.
  • Davis SJ; The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA.
  • Huo J; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA.
  • Li S; Department of Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
  • Bai Y; Institute of Blue and Green Development, Weihai Institute of Interdisciplinary Research, Shandong University, Weihai, China.
  • Lei T; Institute of Blue and Green Development, Weihai Institute of Interdisciplinary Research, Shandong University, Weihai, China.
  • Xue Q; Department of Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
  • Coffman D; Institute of Blue and Green Development, Weihai Institute of Interdisciplinary Research, Shandong University, Weihai, China.
  • Cheng D; The Bartlett School of Construction and Project Management, University College London, London, UK.
  • Chen P; Department of Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
  • Liang X; Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
  • Xu B; Business School, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
  • Lu X; Department of Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
  • Wang S; Center for Healthy Cities, Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
  • Hubacek K; Spark Ventures, London, UK.
  • Gong P; Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nat Hum Behav ; 4(6): 577-587, 2020 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-563084
ABSTRACT
Countries have sought to stop the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) by severely restricting travel and in-person commercial activities. Here, we analyse the supply-chain effects of a set of idealized lockdown scenarios, using the latest global trade modelling framework. We find that supply-chain losses that are related to initial COVID-19 lockdowns are largely dependent on the number of countries imposing restrictions and that losses are more sensitive to the duration of a lockdown than its strictness. However, a longer containment that can eradicate the disease imposes a smaller loss than shorter ones. Earlier, stricter and shorter lockdowns can minimize overall losses. A 'go-slow' approach to lifting restrictions may reduce overall damages if it avoids the need for further lockdowns. Regardless of the strategy, the complexity of global supply chains will magnify losses beyond the direct effects of COVID-19. Thus, pandemic control is a public good that requires collective efforts and support to lower-capacity countries.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Communicable Disease Control / Models, Econometric / Coronavirus Infections / Pandemics / Health Policy / Industry Type of study: Experimental Studies Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Nat Hum Behav Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41562-020-0896-8

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Communicable Disease Control / Models, Econometric / Coronavirus Infections / Pandemics / Health Policy / Industry Type of study: Experimental Studies Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Nat Hum Behav Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41562-020-0896-8