COVID-19 in Italy: Considerations on official data.

ABSTRACT

COVID-19 represents a major public health issue in Italy; estimating the size of the outbreak could direct public health policies and inform us of the extent of the reorganization needed in the healthcare system, the efficacy of quarantine measures, and eventually on the achievement of herd immunity. To chart the real extent of COVID-19 infection in Italy official data need to be interpreted, considering various aspects such as the "suspected-case" definition that changed during recent months, the management of asymptomatic and untested symptomatic cases, the system for reporting deaths, and short-term fluctuations. All these aspects should be considered when reflecting on the meaning of the official COVID-19 figures in Italy. Regionalization of the healthcare system and fragmentation of data represent real challenges in the management of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. The authors' opinion is that transparent and accurate reporting could guide policy-making and help reorganize health services.