The challenges of modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
; 117(29): 16732-16738, 2020 07 21.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-629461
ABSTRACT
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed epidemic modeling at the forefront of worldwide public policy making. Nonetheless, modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 remains a challenge. Here, we detail three regional-scale models for forecasting and assessing the course of the pandemic. This work demonstrates the utility of parsimonious models for early-time data and provides an accessible framework for generating policy-relevant insights into its course. We show how these models can be connected to each other and to time series data for a particular region. Capable of measuring and forecasting the impacts of social distancing, these models highlight the dangers of relaxing nonpharmaceutical public health interventions in the absence of a vaccine or antiviral therapies.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Infection Control
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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