Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention.
Am J Prev Med
; 59(4): 493-503, 2020 10.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-645862
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
Given the continuing COVID-19 pandemic and much of the U.S. implementing social distancing owing to the lack of alternatives, there has been a push to develop a vaccine to eliminate the need for social distancing.METHODS:
In 2020, the team developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of COVID-19 coronavirus and vaccination.RESULTS:
Simulation experiments revealed that to prevent an epidemic (reduce the peak by >99%), the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when vaccination coverage is 100% (reproduction number=2.5-3.5). This vaccine efficacy threshold rises to 70% when coverage drops to 75% and up to 80% when coverage drops to 60% when reproduction number is 2.5, rising to 80% when coverage drops to 75% when the reproduction number is 3.5. To extinguish an ongoing epidemic, the vaccine efficacy has to be at least 60% when coverage is 100% and at least 80% when coverage drops to 75% to reduce the peak by 85%-86%, 61%-62%, and 32% when vaccination occurs after 5%, 15%, and 30% of the population, respectively, have already been exposed to COVID-19 coronavirus. A vaccine with an efficacy between 60% and 80% could still obviate the need for other measures under certain circumstances such as much higher, and in some cases, potentially unachievable, vaccination coverages.CONCLUSIONS:
This study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing).
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Computer Simulation
/
Viral Vaccines
/
Communicable Disease Control
/
Vaccination
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Am J Prev Med
Journal subject:
Public Health
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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