COVID-19 and cataract surgery backlog in Medicare beneficiaries.
J Cataract Refract Surg
; 46(11): 1530-1533, 2020 11.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-658183
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
To forecast the volume of cataract surgery in Medicare beneficiaries in the United States in 2020 and to estimate the surgical backlog that may be created due to COVID-19.SETTING:
Medicare Beneficiaries, United States.DESIGN:
Epidemiologic modeling.METHODS:
Baseline trends in cataract surgery among Medicare beneficiaries were assessed by querying the Medicare Part B Provider Utilization National Summary data. It was assumed that once the surgical deferment is over, there will be a ramp-up period; this was modeled using a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation. Total surgical backlog 2 years postsuspension was estimated. Sensitivity analyses were used to test model assumptions.RESULTS:
Assuming cataract surgeries were to resume in May 2020, it would take 4 months under an optimistic scenario to revert to 90% of the expected pre-COVID forecasted volume. At 2-year postsuspension, the resulting backlog would be between 1.1 and 1.6 million cases. Sensitivity analyses revealed that a substantial surgical backlog would remain despite potentially lower surgical demand in the future.CONCLUSIONS:
Suspension of elective cataract surgical care during the COVID-19 surge might have a lasting impact on ophthalmology and will likely result in a cataract surgical patient backlog. These data may aid physicians, payers, and policymakers in planning for postpandemic recovery.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Cataract Extraction
/
Models, Statistical
/
Medicare Part B
/
Elective Surgical Procedures
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Forecasting
/
Betacoronavirus
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
J Cataract Refract Surg
Journal subject:
Ophthalmology
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.jcrs.0000000000000337
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