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Impact of Social Distancing Measures on Coronavirus Disease Healthcare Demand, Central Texas, USA.
Emerg Infect Dis ; 26(10): 2361-2369, 2020 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-661057
ABSTRACT
Social distancing orders have been enacted worldwide to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, reduce strain on healthcare systems, and prevent deaths. To estimate the impact of the timing and intensity of such measures, we built a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission that incorporates age-stratified risks and contact patterns and projects numbers of hospitalizations, patients in intensive care units, ventilator needs, and deaths within US cities. Focusing on the Austin metropolitan area of Texas, we found that immediate and extensive social distancing measures were required to ensure that COVID-19 cases did not exceed local hospital capacity by early May 2020. School closures alone hardly changed the epidemic curve. A 2-week delay in implementation was projected to accelerate the timing of peak healthcare needs by 4 weeks and cause a bed shortage in intensive care units. This analysis informed the Stay Home-Work Safe order enacted by Austin on March 24, 2020.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Pandemics / Health Policy / Health Services / Hospital Bed Capacity Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Humans / Infant / Middle aged / Young adult Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Emerg Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Pandemics / Health Policy / Health Services / Hospital Bed Capacity Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Adolescent / Adult / Aged / Child / Child, preschool / Humans / Infant / Middle aged / Young adult Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Emerg Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2020 Document Type: Article