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Estimating the establishment of local transmission and the cryptic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.
Davis, Jessica T; Chinazzi, Matteo; Perra, Nicola; Mu, Kunpeng; Piontti, Ana Pastore Y; Ajelli, Marco; Dean, Natalie E; Gioannini, Corrado; Litvinova, Maria; Merler, Stefano; Rossi, Luca; Sun, Kaiyuan; Xiong, Xinyue; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M; Viboud, Cécile; Vespignani, Alessandro.
  • Davis JT; laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA USA.
  • Chinazzi M; laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA USA.
  • Perra N; Networks and Urban Systems Centre, University of Greenwich, London, UK.
  • Mu K; laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA USA.
  • Piontti APY; laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA USA.
  • Ajelli M; laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA USA.
  • Dean NE; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento Italy.
  • Gioannini C; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
  • Litvinova M; Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, USA.
  • Merler S; ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.
  • Rossi L; ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.
  • Sun K; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento Italy.
  • Xiong X; ISI Foundation, Turin, Italy.
  • Halloran ME; Fogarty International Center, NIH, USA.
  • Longini IM; laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA USA.
  • Viboud C; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • Vespignani A; Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA. USA.
medRxiv ; 2020 Aug 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-663330
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ABSTRACT
We use a global metapopulation transmission model to study the establishment of sustained and undetected community transmission of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. The model is calibrated on international case importations from mainland China and takes into account travel restrictions to and from international destinations. We estimate widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in February, 2020. Modeling results indicate international travel as the key driver of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the West and East Coast metropolitan areas that could have been seeded as early as late-December, 2019. For most of the continental states the largest contribution of imported infections arrived through domestic travel flows.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Language: English Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Language: English Year: 2020 Document Type: Article