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Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir.
Du, Zhanwei; Nugent, Ciara; Galvani, Alison P; Krug, Robert M; Meyers, Lauren Ancel.
  • Du Z; Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
  • Nugent C; Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
  • Galvani AP; Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CN, USA.
  • Krug RM; Department of Molecular Biosciences, John Ring LaMontagne Center for Infectious Disease, Institute for Cellular and Molecular Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
  • Meyers LA; Department of Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA. laurenmeyers@austin.utexas.edu.
Nat Commun ; 11(1): 2750, 2020 06 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-680538
ABSTRACT
Influenza viruses annually kill 290,000-650,000 people worldwide. Antivirals can reduce death tolls. Baloxavir, the recently approved influenza antiviral, inhibits initiation of viral mRNA synthesis, whereas oseltamivir, an older drug, inhibits release of virus progeny. Baloxavir blocks virus replication more rapidly and completely than oseltamivir, reducing the duration of infectiousness. Hence, early baloxavir treatment may indirectly prevent transmission. Here, we estimate impacts of ramping up and accelerating baloxavir treatment on population-level incidence using a new model that links viral load dynamics from clinical trial data to between-host transmission. We estimate that ~22 million infections and >6,000 deaths would have been averted in the 2017-2018 epidemic season by administering baloxavir to 30% of infected cases within 48 h after symptom onset. Treatment within 24 h would almost double the impact. Consequently, scaling up early baloxavir treatment would substantially reduce influenza morbidity and mortality every year. The development of antivirals against the SARS-CoV2 virus that function like baloxavir might similarly curtail transmission and save lives.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Antiviral Agents / Orthomyxoviridae / Oxazines / Pyridines / Thiepins / Triazines / Influenza, Human / Epidemics Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-020-16585-y

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Antiviral Agents / Orthomyxoviridae / Oxazines / Pyridines / Thiepins / Triazines / Influenza, Human / Epidemics Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: Nat Commun Journal subject: Biology / Science Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41467-020-16585-y