Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir.
Nat Commun
; 11(1): 2750, 2020 06 02.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-680538
ABSTRACT
Influenza viruses annually kill 290,000-650,000 people worldwide. Antivirals can reduce death tolls. Baloxavir, the recently approved influenza antiviral, inhibits initiation of viral mRNA synthesis, whereas oseltamivir, an older drug, inhibits release of virus progeny. Baloxavir blocks virus replication more rapidly and completely than oseltamivir, reducing the duration of infectiousness. Hence, early baloxavir treatment may indirectly prevent transmission. Here, we estimate impacts of ramping up and accelerating baloxavir treatment on population-level incidence using a new model that links viral load dynamics from clinical trial data to between-host transmission. We estimate that ~22 million infections and >6,000 deaths would have been averted in the 2017-2018 epidemic season by administering baloxavir to 30% of infected cases within 48 h after symptom onset. Treatment within 24 h would almost double the impact. Consequently, scaling up early baloxavir treatment would substantially reduce influenza morbidity and mortality every year. The development of antivirals against the SARS-CoV2 virus that function like baloxavir might similarly curtail transmission and save lives.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Antiviral Agents
/
Orthomyxoviridae
/
Oxazines
/
Pyridines
/
Thiepins
/
Triazines
/
Influenza, Human
/
Epidemics
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Nat Commun
Journal subject:
Biology
/
Science
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41467-020-16585-y
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