Value of CT findings in predicting transformation of clinical types of COVID-19

ABSTRACT

Objective: To investigate the value of CT findings in predicting thetransformation of clinical types of COVID-19. Methods: From January 24 to February 6, 2020, the clinical and chest CT data of patients with common COVID-19 were analyzed retrospectively. A total of 64 patients were enrolled, including 32 males and 32 females, aged 18-76 (45±15) years. Based on the fact whether patients’ conditions had deteriorated into severe type, all the cases were divided into common type group (51 cases) and deteriorated type group (13 cases). Differences of CT findings in the two groups of patients were analyzed, and visual semi-quantitative scores were introduced to evaluate the pneumonia. Results: Compared with the common type group, the deteriorated type group was more likely to involve the left upper lobe, the right middle lobe and the lung far away from the pleura. The differences between the two groups were statistically significant (χ²= 5.897, P=0.027;χ²=8.549, P=0.005;χ²=10.169,P=0.002). The median of the involved lobes were 2 (1,5) in the common type group and 5 (4,5) in the deteriorated type group. The difference between the two groups was statistically significant (Z =-3.303, P=0.001). Taking the involved lobes (n=4) as the threshold, the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnosis of the common type to the deteriorated type patients were the highest, 76.9% and 74.5% respectively, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.787. Pneumonia score of the deteriorated group was 10 (4,16), higher than that of the common group [4 (1,13)], and the difference was statistically significant (Z=-4.040, P<0.001). Pneumonia score 8 as the threshold, the sensitivity and specificity of the general severe group were the highest, 69.2% and 86.3% respectively, and the area under ROC curve was 0.863. Conclusions: CT imaging has a profound value in the early prediction of deterioration in clinical type of COVID-19. It can help evaluate the severity of pneumonia in early stage. Range of lesions might be an important indicator for prognosis of common type COVID-19.