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Estimating the time interval between transmission generations when negative values occur in the serial interval data: using COVID-19 as an example
Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering ; 17(4):3512-3519, 2020.
Article | WHO COVID | ID: covidwho-689159
ABSTRACT
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, and soon became a serious public health threat globally Due to the unobservability, the time interval between transmission generations (TG), though important for understanding the disease transmission patterns, of COVID-19 cannot be directly summarized from surveillance data In this study, we develop a likelihood framework to estimate the TG and the pre-symptomatic transmission period from the serial interval observations from the individual transmission events As the results, we estimate the mean of TG at 4 0 days (95%CI 3 3-4 6), and the mean of pre-symptomatic transmission period at 2 2 days (95%CI 1 3-4 7) We approximate the mean latent period of 3 3 days, and 32 2% (95%CI 10 3-73 7) of the secondary infections may be due to pre-symptomatic transmission The timely and effectively isolation of symptomatic COVID-19 cases is crucial for mitigating the epidemics

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Full text: Available Database: WHO COVID Type: Article Journal: Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering Year: 2020