Development and validation of a risk stratification model for screening suspected cases of COVID-19 in China.
Aging (Albany NY)
; 12(14): 13882-13894, 2020 07 29.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-690793
ABSTRACT
How to quickly identify high-risk populations is critical to epidemic control. We developed and validated a risk prediction model for screening SARS-CoV-2 infection in suspected cases with an epidemiological history. A total of 1019 patients, ≥13 years of age, who had an epidemiological history were enrolled from fever clinics between January 2020 and February 2020. Among 103 (10.11%) cases of COVID-19 were confirmed. Multivariable analysis summarized four features associated with increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, summarized in the mnemonic COVID-19-REAL radiological evidence of pneumonia (1 point), eosinophils < 0.005 × 109/L (1 point), age ≥ 32 years (2 points), and leukocytes < 6.05 × 109 /L (1 point). The area under the ROC curve for the training group was 0.863 (95% CI, 0.813 - 0.912). A cut-off value of less than 3 points for COVID-19-REAL was assigned to define the low-risk population. Only 10 (2.70%) of 371 patients were proved to be SARS-CoV-2 positive, with a negative predictive value of 0.973. External validation was similar. This study provides a simple, practical, and robust screening model, COVID-19-REAL, able to identify populations at high risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Adult
/
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Aging (Albany NY)
Journal subject:
Geriatrics
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Aging.103694
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