AeDES: a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for environmental suitability of Aedes-borne disease transmission.
Sci Rep
; 10(1): 12640, 2020 07 28.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-690878
ABSTRACT
Aedes-borne diseases, such as dengue and chikungunya, are responsible for more than 50 million infections worldwide every year, with an overall increase of 30-fold in the last 50 years, mainly due to city population growth, more frequent travels and ecological changes. In the United States of America, the vast majority of Aedes-borne infections are imported from endemic regions by travelers, who can become new sources of mosquito infection upon their return home if the exposed population is susceptible to the disease, and if suitable environmental conditions for the mosquitoes and the virus are present. Since the susceptibility of the human population can be determined via periodic monitoring campaigns, the environmental suitability for the presence of mosquitoes and viruses becomes one of the most important pieces of information for decision makers in the health sector. We present a next-generation monitoring and forecasting system for [Formula see text]-borne diseases' environmental suitability (AeDES) of transmission in the conterminous United States and transboundary regions, using calibrated ento-epidemiological models, climate models and temperature observations. After analyzing the seasonal predictive skill of AeDES, we briefly consider the recent Zika epidemic, and the compound effects of the current Central American dengue outbreak happening during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, to illustrate how a combination of tailored deterministic and probabilistic forecasts can inform key prevention and control strategies .
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Aedes
/
Epidemiological Monitoring
/
Mosquito Vectors
/
Vector Borne Diseases
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Animals
/
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Rep
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S41598-020-69625-4
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