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Modeling the Prevalence of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Infections in the Chinese Mainland.
Jia, Xiaoqian; Chen, Junxi; Li, Liangjing; Jia, Na; Jiangtulu, Bahabaike; Xue, Tao; Zhang, Le; Li, Zhiwen; Ye, Rongwei; Wang, Bin.
  • Jia X; Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, Peking University/ Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100191, P. R. China.
  • Chen J; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, P. R. China.
  • Li L; Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, Peking University/ Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100191, P. R. China.
  • Jia N; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, P. R. China.
  • Jiangtulu B; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, P. R. China.
  • Xue T; State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing 100071, P. R. China.
  • Zhang L; Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, Peking University/ Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100191, P. R. China.
  • Li Z; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, P. R. China.
  • Ye R; Institute of Reproductive and Child Health, Peking University/ Key Laboratory of Reproductive Health, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China, Beijing 100191, P. R. China.
  • Wang B; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, P. R. China.
Innovation (N Y) ; 1(2): 100026, 2020 Aug 28.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-693467
Semantic information from SemMedBD (by NLM)
1. screening tests TREATS Community
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screening tests
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TREATS
Object
Community
2. screening tests TREATS Community
Subject
screening tests
Predicate
TREATS
Object
Community
ABSTRACT
Recently, considerable efforts have been focused on intensifying the screening process for asymptomatic COVID-19 cases in the Chinese Mainland, especially for up to 10 million citizens living in Wuhan City by nucleic acid testing. However, a high percentage of domestic asymptomatic cases did not develop into symptomatic ones, which is abnormal and has drawn considerable public attention. Here, we aimed to investigate the prevalence of COVID-19 infections in the Chinese Mainland from a statistical perspective, as it is of referential significance for other regions. By conservatively assuming a development time lag from pre-symptomatic (i.e., referring to the infected cases that were screened before the COVID-19 symptom onset) to symptomatic as an incubation time of 5.2 days, our results indicated that 92.5% of those tested in Wuhan City, China, and 95.1% of those tested in the Chinese Mainland should have COVID-19 syndrome onset, which was extremely higher than their corresponding practical percentages of 0.8% and 3.3%, respectively. We propose that a certain false positive rate may exist if large-scale nucleic acid screening tests for asymptomatic cases are conducted in common communities with a low incidence rate. Despite adopting relatively high-sensitivity, high-specificity detection kits, we estimated a very low prevalence of COVID-19 infections, ranging from 10-6 to 10-4 in both Wuhan City and the Chinese Mainland. Thus, the prevalence rate of asymptomatic infections in China had been at a very low level. Furthermore, given the lower prevalence of the infection, close examination of the data for false positive results is necessary to minimize social and economic impacts.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prevalence study / Risk factors Language: English Journal: Innovation (N Y) Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Prevalence study / Risk factors Language: English Journal: Innovation (N Y) Year: 2020 Document Type: Article