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Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19.
Aleta, Alberto; Martín-Corral, David; Pastore Y Piontti, Ana; Ajelli, Marco; Litvinova, Maria; Chinazzi, Matteo; Dean, Natalie E; Halloran, M Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M; Merler, Stefano; Pentland, Alex; Vespignani, Alessandro; Moro, Esteban; Moreno, Yamir.
  • Aleta A; Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, Turin, Italy.
  • Martín-Corral D; Department of Mathematics and GISC, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Leganés, Spain.
  • Pastore Y Piontti A; Zensei Technologies S.L., Madrid, Spain.
  • Ajelli M; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Litvinova M; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
  • Chinazzi M; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
  • Dean NE; Institute for Scientific Interchange Foundation, Turin, Italy.
  • Halloran ME; Laboratory for the Modeling of Biological and Socio-technical Systems, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA.
  • Longini IM; Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
  • Merler S; Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • Pentland A; Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • Vespignani A; Department of Biostatistics, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
  • Moro E; Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
  • Moreno Y; Connection Science, Institute for Data Science and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.
Nat Hum Behav ; 4(9): 964-971, 2020 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-695170
ABSTRACT
While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Contact Tracing / Infection Control / Coronavirus Infections / Clinical Laboratory Techniques / Pandemics / Betacoronavirus Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Nat Hum Behav Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41562-020-0931-9

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Contact Tracing / Infection Control / Coronavirus Infections / Clinical Laboratory Techniques / Pandemics / Betacoronavirus Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Nat Hum Behav Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: S41562-020-0931-9