Minimizing disease spread on a quarantined cruise ship: A model of COVID-19 with asymptomatic infections.
Math Biosci
; 329: 108442, 2020 11.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-695282
ABSTRACT
On February 5 the Japanese government ordered the passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess to start a two week quarantine after a former passenger tested positive for COVID-19. During the quarantine the virus spread rapidly throughout the ship. By February 20, there were 651 cases. We model this quarantine with a SEIR model including asymptomatic infections with differentiated shipboard roles for crew and passengers. The study includes the derivation of the basic reproduction number and simulation studies showing the effect of quarantine with COVID-19 or influenza on the total infection numbers. We show that quarantine on a ship with COVID-19 will lead to significant disease spread if asymptomatic infections are not identified. However, if the majority of the crew and passengers are immune or vaccinated to COVID-19, then quarantine would slow the spread. We also show that a disease similar to influenza, even with a ship with a fully susceptible crew and passengers, could be contained through quarantine measures.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Ships
/
Travel
/
Quarantine
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Asymptomatic Infections
/
Pandemics
/
Betacoronavirus
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Math Biosci
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.mbs.2020.108442
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