Bayesian inference of COVID-19 spreading rates in South Africa.
PLoS One
; 15(8): e0237126, 2020.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-696225
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
The Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has highlighted the need for performing accurate inference with limited data. Fundamental to the design of rapid state responses is the ability to perform epidemiological model parameter inference for localised trajectory predictions. In this work, we perform Bayesian parameter inference using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods on the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological models with time-varying spreading rates for South Africa. The results find two change points in the spreading rate of COVID-19 in South Africa as inferred from the confirmed cases. The first change point coincides with state enactment of a travel ban and the resultant containment of imported infections. The second change point coincides with the start of a state-led mass screening and testing programme which has highlighted community-level disease spread that was not well represented in the initial largely traveller based and private laboratory dominated testing data. The results further suggest that due to the likely effect of the national lockdown, community level transmissions are slower than the original imported case driven spread of the disease.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Bayes Theorem
/
Coronavirus Infections
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Africa
Language:
English
Journal:
PLoS One
Journal subject:
Science
/
Medicine
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Journal.pone.0237126
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