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A fractal kinetics SI model can explain the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics.
Kosmidis, Kosmas; Macheras, Panos.
  • Kosmidis K; Division of Theoretical Physics, Department of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece.
  • Macheras P; PharmaInformatics Unit, Research Center ATHENA, Athens, Greece.
PLoS One ; 15(8): e0237304, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-709347
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ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a shocking impact on the lives of everybody on the planet. Here, we present a modification of the classical SI model, the Fractal Kinetics SI model which is in excellent agreement with the disease outbreak data available from the World Health Organization. The fractal kinetic approach that we propose here originates from chemical kinetics and has successfully been used in the past to describe reaction dynamics when imperfect mixing and segregation of the reactants is important and affects the dynamics of the reaction. The model introduces a novel epidemiological parameter, the "fractal" exponent h which is introduced in order to account for the self-organization of the societies against the pandemic through social distancing, lockdowns and flight restrictions.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Fractals / Coronavirus Infections / Betacoronavirus Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0237304

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Fractals / Coronavirus Infections / Betacoronavirus Type of study: Observational study Limits: Humans Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0237304