Key questions for modelling COVID-19 exit strategies.
Proc Biol Sci
; 287(1932): 20201405, 2020 08 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-711780
ABSTRACT
Combinations of intense non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) were introduced worldwide to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Many governments have begun to implement exit strategies that relax restrictions while attempting to control the risk of a surge in cases. Mathematical modelling has played a central role in guiding interventions, but the challenge of designing optimal exit strategies in the face of ongoing transmission is unprecedented. Here, we report discussions from the Isaac Newton Institute 'Models for an exit strategy' workshop (11-15 May 2020). A diverse community of modellers who are providing evidence to governments worldwide were asked to identify the main questions that, if answered, would allow for more accurate predictions of the effects of different exit strategies. Based on these questions, we propose a roadmap to facilitate the development of reliable models to guide exit strategies. This roadmap requires a global collaborative effort from the scientific community and policymakers, and has three parts (i) improve estimation of key epidemiological parameters; (ii) understand sources of heterogeneity in populations; and (iii) focus on requirements for data collection, particularly in low-to-middle-income countries. This will provide important information for planning exit strategies that balance socio-economic benefits with public health.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Immunity, Herd
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Qualitative research
/
Reviews
Limits:
Child
/
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Proc Biol Sci
Journal subject:
Biology
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Rspb.2020.1405
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