Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study.
Lancet Public Health
; 5(5): e279-e288, 2020 05.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-72032
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
A range of public health measures have been implemented to suppress local transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Hong Kong. We examined the effect of these interventions and behavioural changes of the public on the incidence of COVID-19, as well as on influenza virus infections, which might share some aspects of transmission dynamics with COVID-19.METHODS:
We analysed data on laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases, influenza surveillance data in outpatients of all ages, and influenza hospitalisations in children. We estimated the daily effective reproduction number (Rt) for COVID-19 and influenza A H1N1 to estimate changes in transmissibility over time. Attitudes towards COVID-19 and changes in population behaviours were reviewed through three telephone surveys done on Jan 20-23, Feb 11-14, and March 10-13, 2020.FINDINGS:
COVID-19 transmissibility measured by Rt has remained at approximately 1 for 8 weeks in Hong Kong. Influenza transmission declined substantially after the implementation of social distancing measures and changes in population behaviours in late January, with a 44% (95% CI 34-53%) reduction in transmissibility in the community, from an estimated Rt of 1·28 (95% CI 1·26-1·30) before the start of the school closures to 0·72 (0·70-0·74) during the closure weeks. Similarly, a 33% (24-43%) reduction in transmissibility was seen based on paediatric hospitalisation rates, from an Rt of 1·10 (1·06-1·12) before the start of the school closures to 0·73 (0·68-0·77) after school closures. Among respondents to the surveys, 74·5%, 97·5%, and 98·8% reported wearing masks when going out, and 61·3%, 90·2%, and 85·1% reported avoiding crowded places in surveys 1 (n=1008), 2 (n=1000), and 3 (n=1005), respectively.INTERPRETATION:
Our study shows that non-pharmaceutical interventions (including border restrictions, quarantine and isolation, distancing, and changes in population behaviour) were associated with reduced transmission of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, and are also likely to have substantially reduced influenza transmission in early February, 2020.FUNDING:
Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Influenza, Human
/
Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype
/
Pandemics
Type of study:
Diagnostic study
/
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Long Covid
Limits:
Adult
/
Child
/
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Lancet Public Health
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S2468-2667(20)30090-6
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