Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Egypt.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization declared the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Egypt is among the five countries reporting the highest number of cases in Africa. AIMS: We aimed to provide an overview of the epidemic features of COVID-19 in Egypt in order to help guide an effective lockdown-exit strategy. METHODS: The incidence proportions, case fatality rates (CFR), growth rates, doubling time (Td), basic reproductive number (R0) and Herd Immunity Threshold (HIT) were calculated weekly and reviewed. RESULTS: As of 21 May 2020, the epidemic growth rate and R0 have decreased significantly; the averages (±SD) were 0.35 (±0.33) and 2.6 (±1.55) respectively. However, the incidence proportion has increased to 14 cases /100 000 population. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 transmissibility has declined but the incidence rate has increased, underscoring that any lockdown-exit strategy should include measures to strengthen physical distancing, and case-based interventions to prevent an uncontrolled upsurge of COVID-19 cases.