Age could be driving variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide.
PLoS One
; 15(8): e0237959, 2020.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-723992
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Current geographic spread of documented severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections shows heterogeneity. This study explores the role of age in potentially driving differentials in infection spread, epidemic potential, and rates of disease severity and mortality across countries. An age-stratified deterministic mathematical model that describes SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics was applied to 159 countries and territories with a population ≥1 million. Assuming worst-case scenario for the pandemic, the results indicate that there could be stark regional differences in epidemic trajectories driven by differences in the distribution of the population by age. In the African Region (median age 18.9 years), the median R0 was 1.05 versus 2.05 in the European Region (median age 41.7 years), and the median (per 100 persons) for the final cumulative infection incidence was 22.5 (versus 69.0), for severe and/or critical disease cases rate was 3.3 (versus 13.0), and for death rate was 0.5 (versus 3.9). Age could be a driver of variable SARS-CoV-2 epidemic trajectories worldwide. Countries with sizable adult and/or elderly populations and smaller children populations may experience large and rapid epidemics in absence of interventions. Meanwhile, countries with predominantly younger age cohorts may experience smaller and slower epidemics. These predictions, however, should not lead to complacency, as the pandemic could still have a heavy toll nearly everywhere.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Language:
English
Journal:
PLoS One
Journal subject:
Science
/
Medicine
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Journal.pone.0237959
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