Effects of Latency on Estimates of the COVID-19 Replication Number.
Bull Math Biol
; 82(9): 114, 2020 08 20.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-725459
ABSTRACT
There is continued uncertainty in how long it takes a person infected by the COVID-19 virus to become infectious. In this paper, we quantify how this uncertainty affects estimates of the basic replication number [Formula see text], and thus estimates of the fraction of the population that would become infected in the absence of effective interventions. The analysis is general, and applies to all SEIR-based models, not only those associated with COVID-19. We find that when modeling a rapidly spreading epidemic, seemingly minor differences in how latency is treated can lead to vastly different estimates of [Formula see text]. We also derive a simple formula relating the replication number to the fraction of the population that is eventually infected. This formula is robust and applies to all compartmental models whose parameters do not depend on time.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Basic Reproduction Number
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Models, Biological
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Bull Math Biol
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S11538-020-00791-2
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