The first two months epidimiological study of COVID-19, related public health preparedness, and response to the ongoing epidemic in Pakistan.

ABSTRACT

As an underdeveloped country, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic has posed a major risk to the health and economy of Pakistan. The SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model of epidemiologic analysis predicts that there should have been more cases since late March 2020 in Pakistan. We therefore sought to investigate COVID-19's prevalence and epidemiologic trends in Pakistan. Research for COVID-19 is still in its early stages, so data were collected from official websites and research journals, then analyzed for the disease's prevalence, epidemiology, mortality and recoveries. The results indicated that a rapid increase had indeed occurred in the number of COVID-19 infections in Pakistan, with the first case reported on 25 February, 2020. From 25 February 25 to April, 2020, COVID-19 infected 11,155 people in Pakistan, with 237 deaths (2.12%) and 2527 recoveries (19.96%). We found a statistically significant positive correlation between the prevalence of COVID-19 and the mortality ratio (r = 0.983, r 2 = 0.966; p ≤ 0.05). We concluded that proper management must be undertaken to improve the quarantine system, and the World Health Organization guidelines must be closely followed to cope with COVID-19. There is no vaccine for COVID-19, so antiviral drugs (interferon alfa, ribavirin) may be useful to prevent COVID-19; however, severe control measures implemented in China have significantly mitigated the spread of COVID-19. Suspected and confirmed cases must be treated in separate rooms. Staying home and social distancing are the safe way to proceed.