Risk clusters of COVID-19 transmission in northeastern Brazil: prospective space-time modelling.
Epidemiol Infect
; 148: e188, 2020 08 24.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-851165
ABSTRACT
This study aimed to analyse the trend and spatial-temporal clusters of risk of transmission of COVID-19 in northeastern Brazil. We conducted an ecological study using spatial and temporal trend analysis. All confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the Northeast region of Brazil were included, from 7 March to 22 May 2020. We used the segmented log-linear regression model to assess time trends, and the local empirical Bayesian estimator, the global and local Moran indexes for spatial analysis. The prospective space-time scan statistic was performed using the Poisson probability distribution model. There were 113 951 confirmed cases of COVID-19. The average incidence rate was 199.73 cases/100 000 inhabitants. We observed an increasing trend in the incidence rate in all states. Spatial autocorrelation was reported in metropolitan areas, and 178 municipalities were considered a priority, especially in the states of Ceará and Maranhão. We identified 11 spatiotemporal clusters of COVID-19 cases; the primary cluster included 70 municipalities from Ceará state. COVID-19 epidemic is increasing rapidly throughout the Northeast region of Brazil, with dispersion towards countryside. It was identified high risk clusters for COVID-19, especially in the coastal side.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Spatio-Temporal Analysis
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
South America
/
Brazil
Language:
English
Journal:
Epidemiol Infect
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
/
Epidemiology
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S0950268820001843
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