[Analysis on the cluster epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 in Guangdong Province].

ABSTRACT

Objective: Analysis of clustering characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Guangdong Province. Methods: The COVID-19 cases in Guangdong Province onset from January 1 to February 29, 2020 were collected from Chinese information system for disease control and prevention and Emergency Public Reporting System. Obtain the epidemiological survey data of the cluster epidemic situation, and clarify the scale of cluster epidemic situation, the characteristics of the index cases, family and non-family subsequent cases. Calculate serial interval according to the onset time of the index cases and subsequent cases, secondary attack rate based on the close contacts tracking results, the characteristics of different cases in the clustered epidemic were compared. Results: A total of 283 cluster were collected, including 633 index cases, 239 subsequent cases. Families are mainly clustered, the total number involved in each cluster is in the range of 2-27, M (P25, P75) are 2.0 (2.0, 4.0). During January 15 to February 29, the secondary attack rate is 2.86% (239/8 363) in Guangdong Province, the family secondary attack rate was 4.84% (276/3 697), and the non-family secondary attack rate was 1.32% (61/4 632). According to the reporting trend of the number of cases in Guangdong Province, it can be divided into four stages, the rising stage, the high platform stage, the descending stage and the low level fluctuation period. The secondary attack rate of the four stages were 3.5% (140/3 987), 2.3% (55/2 399), 2.6% (37/1 435), 1.3% (7/542), respectively. The difference was statistically significant (P=0.003). Conclusion: COVID-19 cluster mainly occurs in families in Guangdong Province. The scale of the clustered epidemic was small; the serial interval was short; and the overall secondary attack rate was low.