Estimation of Coronavirus Disease Case-Fatality Risk in Real Time.

Ge, Yang; Sun, Shengzhi

Ge, Yang; Sun, Shengzhi.

Emerg Infect Dis ; 26(8): 1922-1923, 2020 08.

Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-732560

ABSTRACT

ABSTRACT

We ran a simulation comparing 3 methods to calculate case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease using parameters described in previous studies. Case-fatality risk calculated from these methods all are biased at the early stage of the epidemic. When comparing real-time case-fatality risk, the current trajectory of the epidemic should be considered.

Subject(s)

Betacoronavirus/pathogenicity; Coronavirus Infections/epidemiology; Coronavirus Infections/mortality; Models, Statistical; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral/epidemiology; Pneumonia, Viral/mortality; COVID-19; Computer Simulation; Coronavirus Infections/diagnosis; Coronavirus Infections/transmission; Female; Humans; Incidence; Male; Pneumonia, Viral/diagnosis; Pneumonia, Viral/transmission; Risk Factors; SARS-CoV-2; Severity of Illness Index; Survival Analysis; Time Factors

Keywords

2019 novel coronavirus disease; COVID-19; SARS; SARS-CoV-2; coronavirus; coronavirus disease; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; viruses; zoonoses

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Models, Statistical / Coronavirus Infections / Pandemics / Betacoronavirus Type of study: Diagnostic study / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Female / Humans / Male Language: English Journal: Emerg Infect Dis Journal subject: Communicable Diseases Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

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