Mathematical Analysis of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCov) Delay Pandemic Model

ABSTRACT

In this manuscript, the mathematical analysis of corona virus model with time delay effect is studied. Mathematical modelling of infectious diseases has substantial role in the different disciplines such as biological, engineering, physical, social, behavioural problems and many more. Most of infectious diseases are dreadful such as HIV/AIDS, Hepatitis and 2019-nCov. Unfortunately, due to the non-availability of vaccine for 2019-nCov around the world, the delay factors like, social distancing, quarantine, travel restrictions, holidays extension, hospitalization and isolation are used as key tools to control the pandemic of 2019-nCov. We have analysed the reproduction number R-nCov of delayed model. Two key strategies from the reproduction number of 2019-nCov model, may be followed, according to the nature of the disease as if it is diminished or present in the community. The more delaying tactics eventually, led to the control of pandemic. Local and global stability of 2019-nCov model is presented for the strategies. We have also investigated the effect of delay factor on reproduction number R-nCov. Finally, some very useful numerical results are presented to support the theoretical analysis of the model.