Estimation of incubation period distribution of COVID-19 using disease onset forward time: A novel cross-sectional and forward follow-up study.
Sci Adv
; 6(33): eabc1202, 2020 08.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-733187
ABSTRACT
We have proposed a novel, accurate low-cost method to estimate the incubation-period distribution of COVID-19 by conducting a cross-sectional and forward follow-up study. We identified those presymptomatic individuals at their time of departure from Wuhan and followed them until the development of symptoms. The renewal process was adopted by considering the incubation period as a renewal and the duration between departure and symptoms onset as a forward time. Such a method enhances the accuracy of estimation by reducing recall bias and using the readily available data. The estimated median incubation period was 7.76 days [95% confidence interval (CI) 7.02 to 8.53], and the 90th percentile was 14.28 days (95% CI 13.64 to 14.90). By including the possibility that a small portion of patients may contract the disease on their way out of Wuhan, the estimated probability that the incubation period is longer than 14 days was between 5 and 10%.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Models, Statistical
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Infectious Disease Incubation Period
/
Betacoronavirus
Type of study:
Cohort study
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Topics:
Long Covid
Limits:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Infant
/
Male
/
Middle aged
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Adv
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Sciadv.abc1202
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