Effectiveness of Social Measures against COVID-19 Outbreaks in Selected Japanese Regions Analyzed by System Dynamic Modeling.
Int J Environ Res Public Health
; 17(17)2020 08 27.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-738631
ABSTRACT
In Japan's response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), virus testing was limited to symptomatic patients due to limited capacity, resulting in uncertainty regarding the spread of infection and the appropriateness of countermeasures. System dynamic modelling, comprised of stock flow and infection modelling, was used to describe regional population dynamics and estimate assumed region-specific transmission rates. The estimated regional transmission rates were then mapped against actual patient data throughout the course of the interventions. This modelling, together with simulation studies, demonstrated the effectiveness of inbound traveler quarantine and resident self-isolation policies and practices. A causal loop approach was taken to link societal factors to infection control measures. This causal loop modelling suggested that the only effective measure against COVID-19 transmission in the Japanese context was intervention in the early stages of the outbreak by national and regional governments, and no social self-strengthening dynamics were demonstrated. These findings may contribute to an understanding of how social resilience to future infectious disease threats can be developed.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Communicable Disease Control
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Ijerph17176238
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