Analysis and prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan.
J Biol Dyn
; 14(1): 730-747, 2020 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-740143
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
In this study, we estimate the severity of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan prior to and after lockdown restrictions were eased. We also project the epidemic curve considering realistic quarantine, social distancing and possible medication scenarios. The pre-lock down value of R0 is estimated to be 1.07 and the post lock down value is estimated to be 1.86. Using this analysis, we project the epidemic curve. We note that if no substantial efforts are made to contain the epidemic, it will peak in mid-September, 2020, with the maximum projected active cases being close to 700, 000. In a realistic, best case scenario, we project that the epidemic peaks in early to mid-July, 2020, with the maximum active cases being around 120, 000. We note that social distancing measures and medication will help flatten the curve; however, without the reintroduction of further lock down, it would be very difficult to make R0<1 .
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Disease Outbreaks
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Betacoronavirus
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
J Biol Dyn
Journal subject:
Biology
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
17513758.2020.1814883
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