Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea.
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop
; 53: e20200481, 2020.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-740418
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic.METHODS:
The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting through the application of a mathematical model to the data.RESULTS:
The predicted number of cases at the end of the epidemic and at the moment that the peak occurs, is highly dependent on the length of the time series used in the predictive model.CONCLUSIONS:
Predictions obtained during the course of the COVID-19 pandemic need to be viewed with caution.
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Coronavirus
/
Pandemics
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Topics:
Long Covid
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Rev Soc Bras Med Trop
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
0037-8682-0481-2020
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