Revealing regional disparities in the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 from interventions in Southeast Asia.
Proc Biol Sci
; 287(1933): 20201173, 2020 08 26.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-742024
ABSTRACT
SARS-CoV-2 is a new pathogen responsible for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. Southeast Asia was the first region to be affected outside China, and although COVID-19 cases have been reported in all countries of Southeast Asia, both the policies and epidemic trajectories differ substantially, potentially due to marked differences in social distancing measures that have been implemented by governments in the region. This paper studies the across-country relationships between social distancing and each population's response to policy, the subsequent effects of these responses to the transmissibility and epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2. The analysis couples COVID-19 case counts with real-time mobility data across Southeast Asia to estimate the effects of host population response to social distancing policy and the subsequent effects on the transmissibility and epidemic trajectories of SARS-CoV-2. A novel inference strategy for the time-varying reproduction number is developed to allow explicit inference of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 through a regression structure. This framework replicates the observed epidemic trajectories across most Southeast Asian countries, provides estimates of the effects of social distancing on the transmissibility of disease and can simulate epidemic histories conditional on changes in the degree of intervention scenarios and compliance within Southeast Asia.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Quarantine
/
Communicable Disease Control
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Proc Biol Sci
Journal subject:
Biology
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Rspb.2020.1173
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS