Mathematical models for devising the optimal SARS-CoV-2 strategy for eradication in China, South Korea, and Italy.
J Transl Med
; 18(1): 345, 2020 09 05.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-745680
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), spreads rapidly and has attracted worldwide attention.METHODS:
To improve the forecast accuracy and investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2, we constructed four mathematical models to numerically estimate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the efficacy of eradication strategies.RESULTS:
Using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model, and including measures such as city closures and extended leave policies implemented by the Chinese government that effectively reduced the ß value, we estimated that the ß value and basic transmission number, R0, of SARS-CoV-2 was 0.476/6.66 in Wuhan, 0.359/5.03 in Korea, and 0.400/5.60 in Italy. Considering medicine and vaccines, an advanced model demonstrated that the emergence of vaccines would greatly slow the spread of the virus. Our model predicted that 100,000 people would become infected assuming that the isolation rate α in Wuhan was 0.30. If quarantine measures were taken from March 10, 2020, and the quarantine rate of α was also 0.3, then the final number of infected people was predicted to be 11,426 in South Korea and 147,142 in Italy.CONCLUSIONS:
Our mathematical models indicate that SARS-CoV-2 eradication depends on systematic planning, effective hospital isolation, and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, and some measures including city closures and leave policies should be implemented to ensure SARS-CoV-2 eradication.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
/
Disease Eradication
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
/
Systematic review/Meta Analysis
Topics:
Vaccines
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
/
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
J Transl Med
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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