Modeling the transmission dynamics and the impact of the control interventions for the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak.
Math Biosci Eng
; 17(4): 4165-4183, 2020 06 15.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-750588
ABSTRACT
In this paper we develop a compartmental epidemic model to study the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak, with Mexico as a practical example. In particular, we evaluate the theoretical impact of plausible control interventions such as home quarantine, social distancing, cautious behavior and other self-imposed measures. We also investigate the impact of environmental cleaning and disinfection, and government-imposed isolation of infected individuals. We use a Bayesian approach and officially published data to estimate some of the model parameters, including the basic reproduction number. Our findings suggest that social distancing and quarantine are the winning strategies to reduce the impact of the outbreak. Environmental cleaning can also be relevant, but its cost and effort required to bring the maximum of the outbreak under control indicate that its cost-efficacy is low.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Models, Biological
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Mexico
Language:
English
Journal:
Math Biosci Eng
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
Mbe.2020231
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