Warmer weather unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission: An ecological study in 202 locations in 8 countries.
Sci Total Environ
; 753: 142272, 2021 Jan 20.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-752862
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE:
To examine the association between meteorological factors (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and UV radiation) and transmission capacity of COVID-19.METHODS:
We collected daily numbers of COVID-19 cases in 202 locations in 8 countries. We matched meteorological data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. We used a time-frequency approach to examine the possible association between meteorological conditions and basic reproductive number (R0) of COVID-19. We determined the correlations between meteorological factors and R0 of COVID-19 using multiple linear regression models and meta-analysis. We further validated our results using a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) metapopulation model to simulate the changes of daily cases of COVID-19 in China under different temperatures and relative humidity conditions. PRINCIPALRESULTS:
Temperature did not exhibit significant association with R0 of COVID-19 (meta p = 0.446). Also, relative humidity (meta p = 0.215), wind speed (meta p = 0.986), and ultraviolet (UV) radiation (meta p = 0.491) were not significantly associated with R0 either. The SEIR model in China showed that with a wide range of meteorological conditions, the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases would not change substantially.CONCLUSIONS:
Meteorological conditions did not have statistically significant associations with the R0 of COVID-19. Warmer weather alone seems unlikely to reduce the COVID-19 transmission.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Weather
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
Type of study:
Prognostic study
/
Reviews
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
Sci Total Environ
Year:
2021
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
J.scitotenv.2020.142272
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