Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19.
Emerg Infect Dis
; 26(11): e1-e14, 2020 11.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-760831
ABSTRACT
We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8-6.9 days, serial interval 4.0-7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3-7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Models, Statistical
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Disease Transmission, Infectious
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
Emerg Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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