PIN42 Current Trends in Covid-19 Testing Rates and Unmet NEEDS

ABSTRACT

Objectives: To analyze the current rate of COVID-19 testing in select countries and what India can learn Methods: Number of tests per million people and case doubling time was collected through tracking websites and analyzed for 1 Feb – 6 Apr 2020 for 11 countries. Results: South Korea, with a very high testing rate, reported 380 cases per million for as early as Feb 22, a rate matched by the UK two weeks later. Germany also steeply increased its testing rate starting Mar 10. The total number of samples tested in Germany was 918,460, as of Mar 29 and the case doubling time was 9 days. S. Korea had tested 443, 273 (1% of the total population) cases as of Apr 3 and the case doubling time was 33 days. In contrast, test numbers in India were negligible, and doubling time was 4 days1,2. Importantly, testing capacity globally is currently limited. S. Korea, at number three after US and China in terms of testing kit production, can only support a capacity of 1,35,000 tests per day at present3. Additionally, ICMR guidelines such as “Laboratory test should only be offered when prescribed by a qualified physician” and 48 hours of turnaround time for test results further delay case identification and isolation4. Conclusions: If India was to mirror the testing rate of S. Korea, ∼15 million individuals may have to be tested within coming few weeks to be able to bend the curve of the COVID-19 cases. A balance of both the strategies – exponentially increasing testing and social distancing will be crucial. Sources 1. https//ourworldindata.org/coronavirus” l "testing-for-covid-19, accessed on Apr 6, 2020 2. Statista,, accessed on Apr 6, 2020 3. News 4. MoHFW website,, accessed on Ap 7, 2020