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The propagation of economic impacts through supply chains: The case of a mega-city lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19.
Inoue, Hiroyasu; Todo, Yasuyuki.
  • Inoue H; Graduate School of Simulation Studies, University of Hyogo, Kobe, Japan.
  • Todo Y; Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan.
PLoS One ; 15(9): e0239251, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-768843
ABSTRACT
This study quantifies the economic effect of a possible lockdown of Tokyo to prevent the spread of COVID-19. The negative effect of such a lockdown may propagate to other regions through supply chains because of supply and demand shortages. Applying an agent-based model to the actual supply chains of nearly 1.6 million firms in Japan, we simulate what would happen to production activities outside Tokyo if production activities that are not essential to citizens' survival in Tokyo were shut down for a certain period. We find that if Tokyo were locked down for a month, the indirect effect on other regions would be twice as large as the direct effect on Tokyo, leading to a total production loss of 27 trillion yen in Japan or 5.2% of the country's annual GDP. Although the production that would be shut down in Tokyo accounts for 21% of the total production in Japan, the lockdown would result in an 86% reduction of the daily production in Japan after one month.
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Economic Recession / Pandemics Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0239251

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Coronavirus Infections / Economic Recession / Pandemics Type of study: Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: Asia Language: English Journal: PLoS One Journal subject: Science / Medicine Year: 2020 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Journal.pone.0239251