The impact of community containment implementation timing on the spread of COVID-19: A simulation study.
F1000Res
; 9: 452, 2020.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-776308
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
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This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Background:
Community containment is one of the common methods used to mitigate infectious disease outbreaks. The effectiveness of such a method depends on how strictly it is applied and the timing of its implementation. An early start and being strict is very effective; however, at the same time, it impacts freedom and economic opportunity. Here we created a simulation model to understand the effect of the starting day of community containment on the ï¬nal outcome, that is, the number of those infected, hospitalized and those that died, as we followed the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic.Methods:
We used a stochastic recursive simulation method to apply disease outbreak dynamics measures of COVID-19 as an example to simulate disease spread. Parameters are allowed to be randomly assigned between higher and lower values obtained from published COVID-19 literature.Results:
We simulated the dynamics of COVID-19 spread, calculated the number of active infections, hospitalizations and deaths as the outcome of our simulation and compared these results with real world data. We also represented the details of the spread in a network graph structure, and shared the code for the simulation model to be used for examining other variables.Conclusions:
Early implementation of community containment has a big impact on the ï¬nal outcome of an outbreak.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Time Factors
/
Computer Simulation
/
Communicable Disease Control
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Prognostic study
/
Randomized controlled trials
Limits:
Humans
Language:
English
Journal:
F1000Res
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
F1000research.24156.1
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