Low-impact social distancing interventions to mitigate local epidemics of SARS-CoV-2.
Microbes Infect
; 22(10): 611-616, 2020.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-779462
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
Many jurisdictions implemented intensive social distancing to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission. The challenge now is to mitigate the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic without overburdening economic and social activities. An agent-based model simulated the population of King County, Washington. SARS-CoV-2 transmission probabilities were estimated by fitting simulated to observed hospital admissions. Interventions considered included encouraging telecommuting, reducing contacts to high-risk persons, and reductions to contacts outside of the home, among others. Removing all existing interventions would result in nearly 42,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations between June 2020 and January 2021, with peak hospital occupancy exceeding available beds 6-fold. Combining interventions is predicted to reduce total hospitalizations by 48% (95% CI, 47-49%), with peak COVID-19 hospital occupancy of 70% of total beds. Targeted school closures can further reduce the peak occupancy. Combining low-impact interventions may mitigate the course of the COVID-19 epidemic, keeping hospital burden within the capacity of the healthcare system.
Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Communicable Disease Control
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Pandemics
/
Early Medical Intervention
/
SARS-CoV-2
/
COVID-19
/
Hospitalization
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
North America
Language:
English
Journal:
Microbes Infect
Journal subject:
Allergy and Immunology
/
Microbiology
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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