Prediction of the Transition From Subexponential to the Exponential Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Chennai, India: Epidemic Nowcasting.
JMIR Public Health Surveill
; 6(3): e21152, 2020 09 18.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-781805
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Several countries adopted lockdown to slowdown the exponential transmission of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic. Disease transmission models and the epidemic forecasts at the national level steer the policy to implement appropriate intervention strategies and budgeting. However, it is critical to design a data-driven reliable model for nowcasting for smaller populations, in particular metro cities.OBJECTIVE:
The aim of this study is to analyze the transition of the epidemic from subexponential to exponential transmission in the Chennai metro zone and to analyze the probability of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) secondary infections while availing the public transport systems in the city.METHODS:
A single geographical zone "Chennai-Metro-Merge" was constructed by combining Chennai District with three bordering districts. Subexponential and exponential models were developed to analyze and predict the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic. Probabilistic models were applied to assess the probability of secondary infections while availing public transport after the release of the lockdown.RESULTS:
The model predicted that transition from subexponential to exponential transmission occurs around the eighth week after the reporting of a cluster of cases. The probability of secondary infections with a single index case in an enclosure of the city bus, the suburban train general coach, and the ladies coach was found to be 0.192, 0.074, and 0.114, respectively.CONCLUSIONS:
Nowcasting at the early stage of the epidemic predicts the probable time point of the exponential transmission and alerts the public health system. After the lockdown release, public transportation will be the major source of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in metro cities, and appropriate strategies based on nowcasting are needed.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Transportation
/
Public Health
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Epidemics
Type of study:
Experimental Studies
/
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
Language:
English
Journal:
JMIR Public Health Surveill
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
21152
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS