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Business Closures, Stay-at-Home Restrictions, and COVID-19 Testing Outcomes in New York City.
Borjas, George J.
  • Borjas GJ; Harvard Kennedy School, 79 JFK Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. Email: gborjas@harvard.edu.
Prev Chronic Dis ; 17: E109, 2020 09 17.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-782358
ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION:

In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, New York City closed all nonessential businesses and restricted the out-of-home activities of residents as of March 22, 2020. This order affected different neighborhoods differently, as stores and workplaces are not randomly distributed across the city, and different populations may have responded differently to the out-of-home restrictions. This study examines how the business closures and activity restrictions affected COVID-19 testing results. An evaluation of whether such actions slowed the spread of the pandemic is a crucial step in designing effective public health policies.

METHODS:

Daily data on the fraction of COVID-19 tests yielding a positive result at the zip code level were analyzed in relation to the number of visits to local businesses (based on smartphone location) and the number of smartphones that stayed fixed at their home location. The regression model also included vectors of fixed effects for the day of the week, the calendar date, and the zip code of residence.

RESULTS:

A large number of visits to local businesses increased the positivity rate of COVID-19 tests, while a large number of smartphones that stayed at home decreased it. A doubling in the relative number of visits increases the positivity rate by about 12.4 percentage points (95% CI, 5.3 to 19.6). A doubling in the relative number of stay-at-home devices lowered it by 2.0 percentage points (95% CI, -2.9 to -1.2). The business closures and out-of-home activity restrictions decreased the positivity rate, accounting for approximately 25% of the decline observed in April and May 2020.

CONCLUSION:

Policy measures decreased the likelihood of positive results in COVID-19 tests. These specific policy tools may be successfully used when comparable health crises arise in the future.
Subject(s)

Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Communicable Disease Control / Coronavirus Infections / Commerce / Disease Transmission, Infectious / Clinical Laboratory Techniques / Pandemics / Betacoronavirus / COVID-19 Testing Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Prev Chronic Dis Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Main subject: Pneumonia, Viral / Communicable Disease Control / Coronavirus Infections / Commerce / Disease Transmission, Infectious / Clinical Laboratory Techniques / Pandemics / Betacoronavirus / COVID-19 Testing Type of study: Diagnostic study / Experimental Studies / Observational study / Prognostic study / Randomized controlled trials Limits: Humans Country/Region as subject: North America Language: English Journal: Prev Chronic Dis Journal subject: Public Health Year: 2020 Document Type: Article