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On the founder effect in COVID-19 outbreaks: how many infected travelers may have started them all?
Ruan, Yongsen; Luo, Zhida; Tang, Xiaolu; Li, Guanghao; Wen, Haijun; He, Xionglei; Lu, Xuemei; Lu, Jian; Wu, Chung-I.
  • Ruan Y; State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.
  • Luo Z; State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.
  • Tang X; State Key Laboratory of Protein and Plant Gene Research, Center for Bioinformatics, School of Life Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
  • Li G; CAS Key Laboratory of Genomic and Precision Medicine, Beijing Institute of Genomics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.
  • Wen H; State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.
  • He X; State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.
  • Lu X; State Key Laboratory of Genetic Resources and Evolution, Kunming Institute of Zoology; Center for Excellence in Animal Evolution and Genetics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650223, China.
  • Lu J; State Key Laboratory of Protein and Plant Gene Research, Center for Bioinformatics, School of Life Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
  • Wu CI; State Key Laboratory of Biocontrol, School of Life Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.
Natl Sci Rev ; 8(1): nwaa246, 2021 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-793335
ABSTRACT
How many incoming travelers (I0 at time 0, equivalent to the 'founders' in evolutionary genetics) infected with SARS-CoV-2 who visit or return to a region could have started the epidemic of that region? I0 would be informative about the initiation and progression of epidemics. To obtain I0 , we analyze the genetic divergence among viral populations of different regions. By applying the 'individual-output' model of genetic drift to the SARS-CoV-2 diversities, we obtain I0 < 10, which could have been achieved by one infected traveler in a long-distance flight. The conclusion is robust regardless of the source population, the continuation of inputs (It for t > 0) or the fitness of the variants. With such a tiny trickle of human movement igniting many outbreaks, the crucial stage of repressing an epidemic in any region should, therefore, be the very first sign of local contagion when positive cases first become identifiable. The implications of the highly 'portable' epidemics, including their early evolution prior to any outbreak, are explored in the companion study (Ruan et al., personal communication).
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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies Topics: Variants Language: English Journal: Natl Sci Rev Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Nsr

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Full text: Available Collection: International databases Database: MEDLINE Type of study: Experimental Studies Topics: Variants Language: English Journal: Natl Sci Rev Year: 2021 Document Type: Article Affiliation country: Nsr