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Mathematical approach of the SIR epidemiological model for the comprehension of the containment measures against the Covid-19. Aproximacion matematica del modelo epidemiologico SIR para la comprension de las medidas de contencion contra la COVID-19
Revista espanola de salud publica ; 94, 2020.
Article | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-797046
ABSTRACT
In December 2019, an acute respiratory disease outbreak from zoonotic origin was detected in the city of Wuhan, China. The outbreak's infectious agent was a type of coronavirus never seen. Thenceforth, the Covid-19 disease has rapidly spread to more than 200 countries around the world. To minimize the devastating effects of the virus, the States have adopted epidemiological measures of various kinds that involved enormous economic expenses and the massive use of the media to explain the measures to the entire population. For the prediction and mitigation of infectious events, various epidemiological models, such as SIR, SEIR, MSIR and MSEIR, are used. Among them, the most widely used is the SIR model, which is based on the analysis of the transition of individuals susceptible to infection (S) to the state of infected individuals that infect (I) and, finally, to that of recovered (cured or deceased) (R), by using differential equations. The objective of this article was the mathematical development of the SIR model and its application to predict the course of the Covid-19 pandemic in the city of Santa Marta (Colombia), in order to understand the reason behind several of the measures of containment adopted by the States of the world in the fight against the pandemic. En diciembre de 2019 un brote de enfermedad respiratoria aguda de origen presumiblemente zoonotico, y cuyo agente infeccioso es un nuevo coronavirus, fue detectado en la ciudad de Wuhan, China. Desde entonces, la enfermedad por el nuevo coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) se expandio rapidamente a mas de 200 paises alrededor del mundo. Para amortiguar los efectos devastadores del virus, los Estados adoptaron medidas epidemiologicas de diversa indole, lo que implico gastos economicos ingentes y la utilizacion masiva de los medios de comunicacion para hacer extensivas las medidas a toda la poblacion. Para la prediccion y mitigacion de eventos infecciosos, diversos modelos epidemiologicos, como el SIR, SEIR, MSIR y MSEIR, son empleados. Entre ellos, el mas utilizado es el modelo SIR, que se basa en el analisis de la transicion de los individuos susceptibles a la infeccion (S) al estado de individuos infectados que infectan (I) y, finalmente, al de recuperados (curados o fallecidos) (R), mediante el uso de ecuaciones diferenciales. El objetivo del presente articulo fue el desarrollo matematico del modelo SIR y su aplicacion para predecir el curso de la pandemia por Covid-19 en la ciudad de Santa Marta (Colombia), a fin de comprender la razon que subyacia a varias de las medidas de contencion adoptadas por los Estados del mundo en la lucha contra la pandemia.
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Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: Web of Science Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Journal: Revista espanola de salud publica Year: 2020 Document Type: Article

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Collection: Databases of international organizations Database: Web of Science Type of study: Observational study / Prognostic study Journal: Revista espanola de salud publica Year: 2020 Document Type: Article