Late incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a highly-endemic remote rural village. A prospective population-based cohort study.

ABSTRACT

Data on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in rural communities is scarce or non-existent. A previous cross-sectional study in middle-aged and older adults enrolled in the Atahualpa Project Cohort demonstrated that 45% of participants had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, 77% of whom were symptomatic. Here, we assessed the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the above-mentioned rural population. One month after baseline testing, 362 of 370 initially seronegative individuals were re-tested to assess incidence of seroconversion and associated risk factors. Twenty-eight of them (7.7%) became seropositive. The overall incidence rate ratio was 7.4 per 100 person months of potential virus exposure (95% C.I. 4.7-10.2). Six seroconverted individuals (21.4%) developed SARS-CoV-2-related symptomatology. The only covariate significantly associated with seroconversion was the use of an open latrine. Predictive margins showed that these individuals were 2.5 times more likely to be infected (95% C.I. 1.03-6.1) than those using a flushing toilet. Therefore, along one month, approximately 8% of seronegative individuals became infected, even after almost half of the population was already seropositive. Nevertheless, a smaller proportion of incident cases were symptomatic (21% versus 77% of the earlier cases), and no deaths were recorded. Whether this decreased clinical expression resulted from a lower viral load in new infections cannot be determined. Increased seroconversion in individuals using latrines is consistent with a contributory role of fecal-oral transmission, although we cannot rule out the possibility that latrines are acting as a proxy for poverty or other unknown interacting variables.