The prediction for development of COVID-19 in global major epidemic areas through empirical trends in China by utilizing state transition matrix model.
BMC Infect Dis
; 20(1): 710, 2020 Sep 29.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-803481
Preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
This scientific journal article is probably based on a previously available preprint. It has been identified through a machine matching algorithm, human confirmation is still pending.
See preprint
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Since pneumonia caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province, China, tremendous infected cases has risen all over the world attributed to its high transmissibility. We aimed to mathematically forecast the inflection point (IFP) of new cases in South Korea, Italy, and Iran, utilizing the transcendental model from China.METHODS:
Data from reports released by the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China (Dec 31, 2019 to Mar 5, 2020) and the World Health Organization (Jan 20, 2020 to Mar 5, 2020) were extracted as the training set and the data from Mar 6 to 9 as the validation set. New close contacts, newly confirmed cases, cumulative confirmed cases, non-severe cases, severe cases, critical cases, cured cases, and death were collected and analyzed. We analyzed the data above through the State Transition Matrix model.RESULTS:
The optimistic scenario (non-Hubei model, daily increment rate of - 3.87%), the cautiously optimistic scenario (Hubei model, daily increment rate of - 2.20%), and the relatively pessimistic scenario (adjustment, daily increment rate of - 1.50%) were inferred and modeling from data in China. The IFP of time in South Korea would be Mar 6 to 12, Italy Mar 10 to 24, and Iran Mar 10 to 24. The numbers of cumulative confirmed patients will reach approximately 20 k in South Korea, 209 k in Italy, and 226 k in Iran under fitting scenarios, respectively. However, with the adoption of different diagnosis criteria, the variation of new cases could impose various influences in the predictive model. If that happens, the IFP of increment will be earlier than predicted above.CONCLUSION:
The end of the pandemic is still inapproachable, and the number of confirmed cases is still escalating. With the augment of data, the world epidemic trend could be further predicted, and it is imperative to consummate the assignment of global medical resources to curb the development of COVID-19.Keywords
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Pneumonia, Viral
/
Coronavirus Infections
/
Betacoronavirus
/
Models, Theoretical
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Asia
/
Europa
Language:
English
Journal:
BMC Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
Affiliation country:
S12879-020-05417-5
Similar
MEDLINE
...
LILACS
LIS