Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission-Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia.
Emerg Infect Dis
; 26(12): 2844-2853, 2020 12.
Article
in English
| MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-805604
ABSTRACT
The ability of health systems to cope with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases is of major concern. In preparation, we used clinical pathway models to estimate healthcare requirements for COVID-19 patients in the context of broader public health measures in Australia. An age- and risk-stratified transmission model of COVID-19 demonstrated that an unmitigated epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the health system of Australia over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone are insufficient to constrain healthcare needs within feasible levels of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions must be applied over the course of the epidemic to ensure systems do not become overwhelmed and essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained. Attention to the full pathway of clinical care is needed, along with ongoing strengthening of capacity.
Keywords
Australia; COVID-19; ICU; ITU; NPIs; SARS; SARS-CoV-2; case-finding; contact tracing; coronavirus; coronavirus disease; health sector capacity; healthcare capacity; isolation; modelling; nonpharmaceutical interventions; quarantine; respiratory infections; severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; social distancing; viruses; zoonoses
Full text:
Available
Collection:
International databases
Database:
MEDLINE
Main subject:
Surge Capacity
/
Pandemics
/
COVID-19
/
Hospital Bed Capacity
Type of study:
Observational study
/
Prognostic study
Limits:
Humans
Country/Region as subject:
Oceania
Language:
English
Journal:
Emerg Infect Dis
Journal subject:
Communicable Diseases
Year:
2020
Document Type:
Article
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