Does Living in Previously Exposed Malaria or Warm Areas is Associated with a Lower Risk of Severe COVID-19 Infection in Italy?

ABSTRACT

Incidence of Covid-19 positivity (21/2/2020-28/3/2020) in provinces of 4 Italian regions whose territory was described as previously exposed to Malaria was compared with those of other provinces of the same regions. The climate of such provinces was compared with the climate of the other provinces in some regions. Previously malarial areas show a lower risk than other provinces of the same regions Mantua (Lombardy) RR=0.94 (CI95%0.89-0.99);Venice-Rovigo (Veneto) RR=0.61 (CI95%0.58-0.65);Ferrara-Ravenna (Emilia-Romagna) RR=0.37 (CI95%0.35-0.41);Cagliari-Oristano-SouthSardinia (Sardinia) RR=0.25 (0.17-0.31). The maximum temperature in March 2020 in those provinces was higher in mean 1.5 degrees for other provinces. The lower frequency of COVID-19 in the provinces previously exposed to Malaria of four Italian regions does not reveal a causal link. The phenomenon has emerged independently in all the regions investigated. People born between the 1920s and 1950s were those most exposed to malaria years ago and today are the most exposed to the severest forms of COVID-19. A warmer climate seems to be associated with a lower risk of COVID, in line with the evidence highlighted in equatorial states where a lower lethality of the virus has emerged, however this regardless of the presence of Malaria. This may suggest that climate and not Malaria is the real risk factor, though further studies need to determine the role of the association climate / COVID.